Portfolio performance 2016

Portfolio performance during 2016


Last year did not have the same swung as the portfolio performance of 2015. On average, the portfolio lost 28 % – compared to a plus of 80 % in 2015. There are probably two reasons for this. One is the more moderate growth in share prices during 2016. The broad Stockholm index rose 6 %. The other reason is the very high number of issues among the shares in the portfolio. In general, issues put pressure on the price. Unless some very significant news follow shortly, it takes a long time for the price to recover.

Only one winner

During 2016 only one share rose, Fortnox. During the year, there was a bid for the company by a Norwegian competitor. The Norwegians withdrew their bid, and the share plunged. In a short time, though, it recovered and today’s price exceeds the bid price by a good margin. Fortnox is up 79 %. Fortnox is the only company to add positive to portfolio performance.

…and many losers

The worst performing share this year is CybAero. It is down no less than 72 %. During the year, there was a failed issue and a more-than-a-year-delayed deliverance. The issue took place in November, and in the end of January, the costumer is still waiting for the delayed systems. The issue price in November was 4 SEK and at present the price is below 3. I hope that there is only one way from here: up!

In the competition of worst performing shares we also have Recyctec. The share has lost 2/3s of its value during 2016. If that wasn’t enough, the company announced shortly after New Year that there will be a preferential rights issue in February. The issue price is 3 SEK – half the price at New Year. After the issue, the company will change list from Aktietorget to Nasdaq First North. At present, the share price lingers a little below 4 SEK.

Third on the list of ill-performing shares is A1M Pharma. The share is down 61 %. This is a real long-term share since investors cannot expect any turnover for a considerable time ahead. Today the share price is around 2 SEK. In 5 or 8 years is probably many times higher, but investors need plenty of patience until then.

Exits in 2016

During 2016, I have closed three positions. This is IVISYS, Photocat and G5 Entertainment. IVISYS and Photocat have lost app. 31 % of their share price during 2016, while G5 is up app. 200 % from around 50 to 150 SEK. The latter I of course regret – I sold in late spring and the share began its rise in late summer. I guess this is just another proof that the future is impossible to predict. As was Brexit. And Trump. The exit shares are not part of the portfolio performance calculation.

Last year’s predictions – and this

I made a few predictions last year. I noticed that there were two obvious candidates for a take-over: Dignitana and Phase Holographic. Today Dignitana is aiming for break-even after an issue during the year, and thereby postponing an immediate sale. Phase Holographic is still a candidate in my view.

The commercial break-through of Nexam Chemical and Heliospectra are still ahead of us. They both made rather large issues during 2016, Nexam apparently with an intention of an acquisition and Heliospectra to secure sufficient funds until break-even. Turnover is growing fast in both companies, but it is not yet a prober break-through.

Looking at the portfolio, Recyctec is the most obvious candidate to reach break-even in 2017. Dignitana, Nexam and Heliospectra might be close when we reach December 2017.

CybAero is a real joker. The company claim to have a number of leads and have a framework agreement on a huge number of systems. Unfortunately, we have seen no firm orders for a very, very long time. A successful delivery in China and two or more orders will raise the share price substantially.

BrainCool made an acquisition during 2016 and I hope turnover will rise during 2017. There is a lot going on in BrainCool – but not sales, yet. During 2017, the company will hand over a company spin-off to shareholders.

I am not entirely sure what to expect of A1M Pharma and Cantargia. The latter is in the middle of an issue. Cantargia will begin phase I-studies in the first half of 2017 – otherwise I see no obvious triggers in near future. A1M? – I guess we’ll just have to wait. It can turn out to be a winner in 2017 because the extreme low share price at present. A rise from 2 SEK to 3 SEK is only a 1 SEK rise – but high rise in percentage. AroCell lives a quiet life. During 2017, we will have better clinical documentation though interim studies on the abilities of the testing kit for cancer, AroCell have developed. Today the testing kit is only for research use, but I expect the documentation will open for a wider use in patient treatment – but probably not before 2018.

In general I expect a better portfolio performance i 2017 and I wish all my readers a happy new year – and hope your investments may be prosperous!

NB! During January, this site have been hacked on several occasions and have therefor been inaccessible for periods. I apologize for any inconvenience.

Check out my growth share portfolio, the share price trigger list or my EGS (Evaluation of Growth Shares) Model.

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