This week has been one of the most volatile weeks when I look at the shares in my portfolio. Top 4 of largest changes this week are: A1M down 40 %, CybAero up 15 %, Cantargia up 9 %, and Dignitana up 8 %. For some of this there a understandable reasons – for others there are not.
A1M – volatile weeks ‘winner’
The shares plunged this week! Down 40 %. For some reason the share price have kept its height even though there was a coming issue. This week changed this.
The prospectus also came out this week. In short: The subscription period began at March 24th and ends April 7th. For 2.25 SEK you get a unit. Each unit contains three shares and one free warrant. After the issue the company will merger 20 shares into one new and apply for listing on Nasdaq First North in Stockholm.
A1M Pharma’s business idea centres on medical utilisation of the protein Alfa-1-Microglobulin. The protein has the ability to protect the kidneys and the company has found a way to produce the substance and intend to take it to market under the name ROSGuard. At first, the aim was to develop a diagnosis kit and medication for preeclampsia. The focus has changed recently by introducing a pre-step in the development plan. Kidney damage emerges as well because of radiation therapy (PRRT) and ROSGuard has showed protective effects on the kidneys during radiation therapy. Since the cancer market is very huge, there is a good change to out-licence the development. This will make an income that can finance the research in preeclampsia.
Dignitana moved up-wards this week after a long period of sliding.
What made the price go up was probably the presentation from the company on March 21th. I think the presentation made clear how the company works and how the US business model works and generates turnover. At present, there are 89 systems at work in 67 facilities in 19 states. I also think the presentation removed some of the uncertainty of the business roll out. Asked the CEO of Dignitana Inc (the American subsidiary) thought that Dignitana will have make profit in Q1 2018. The presentation is in English.
Find my latest post on Dignitana here.
CybAero still moving up-wards
Last week I wrote about the report from CybAero. The share has been under severe pressure for months but after the report a week ago on Friday, the price went up 20 % from 1.54 to 1.86. Suddenly on Friday, the share jumped 20 % again from 1.79 to 2.14 SEK.
I tried to find a reason for the sudden Friday-move but have only found rumours – mainly on an order to China repeatedly delayed since 2014. I hope that this deliverance happen in near future and the company can move on. The current share price is still a joke, though. The share lost more than 70 % in 2016 and at the latest issue in November the price was 4 SEK. In order to regain that level, the share only has to go up 87 % more… it’s just four more Fridays with a plus of 20 %!
Cantargia – target price
Since New Year, the Cantargia share price has moved between 6.5 and 7 SEK – until Mid-March where it began to move down-wards. SEK 5.35 was so far the low-point. This is probably a consequence of guarantors ended up with shares for 4.8 MSEK after the issue last month. They often sell their shares shortly after the issue causing the share price to drop.
This week a Danish investor newsletter published an analysis of the company with a target price of 15 SEK. I hope they are right since this target is almost 2.5 times higher than the actual share price. The analysis made the share jump almost 20 %. The current share price (6.20 SEK) is below the price at the issue in February this year.
One of the things that intrigued me as I started investing in start-up shares was the element of psychology. What made a share go up or go down? To some extend it is like milestone payments for the investors as a company progresses. This still goes even though the ‘mile-stones’ are not as well payed or as regular as some years ago. Perhaps investors in general have sobered up.
Nevertheless, there is one company where the share price works the opposite way around, BrainCool. The company announces many initiatives to validate the cooling as a medical method in different areas: migraine, oral mucositis, concussion etc. Often with a high degree of financing from universities or elsewhere. In March alone, there have been announced two clinical trial agreements, a Dutch and a British.
Despite this, the share keeps sliding downwards – almost 25 % this year and 43 % the past 12 months. At some point, it will start moving up-wards again, I think. Question is just what it will need to change the direction.