Portfolio overview Q317

Towards the end of Q3 – portfolio overview

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A portfolio overview here at the end of Q3 would be appropriate. It will indicate what to look for in the upcoming Q3 reports. The past months have been rather quiet and except for BrainCool, only minor news have occurred. Nevertheless the next months might give some answers.

A1M Pharma

A1M is at a stage where development are on track and preclinical work is soon finished. The company have a series of warrants but since the current share price is well below the subscription price (15 SEK), most investors kept their warrants and waited to the second chance later.A1M Pharma

During Q3, the share price have dropped from a level above 13 SEK to the current 9-10 SEK level. The falling price will in the future be a problem for A1M, as investors will not subscribe their warrants. And A1M will be short of funds.

The company is still at a stage where there are no turnover, so the report on November 22th will most likely be a non-event.

AroCell

AroCell is by far the most anonymous company in the portfolio. AroCell have developed their product and are in the midst of a phase to obtain clinical evidence. The cash level is high and the AroCellburn rate moderate.

During September, the company have announced that the company will make presentations in Poland and UK this autumn. These presentations are stepping-stones on the way to market. During this quarter the share price have dropped from al level between 6 and 7 SEK to around 5 SEK.

The company had turnover of a quarter of a million SEK at Q2 and I expect sales at more or less the same level.

Report dates is November 23th.

BrainCool

BrainCool has made a breakthrough during this quarter. To some extent, the newspaper Dagens Industri helped this by placing BrainCool on a list of companies with potential to raise 1000 % in five years.

During most of the quarter share price have been quite constant around 4.6 SEK – on Friday the price was 11.45 SEK or 2½ times higher. Find my latest post on this here.

The company have also announced three orders in the Middle East, fuelling the rise started by Dagens Industri. Probably these orders will fall in Q4, so I expect net-sales to remain low – below ½ million SEK. Despite all the good news breakeven is still a way to go.

Report dates is November 23th.

Cantargia

Cantargia had its clinical studies in Denmark and Norway approved in July. Apart from a patent grant, the company have made no announcements lately.

During the quarter the share price have moved up from a level below 5.5 SEK to above 6.5 SEK.

As with A1M Pharma, we can expect no sales as the company are at a very early stage.

Report date is November 15th.

CybAero

CybAero made a reverse split 10:1 this week lifting the share price level from 0.86 SEK to 8.6 SEK. None the less, the company still have three delayed systems in China waiting for the final FAT-test. For most investors this since-2014-delay is emblematic for the company.

On the other hand, the company has secured funds from Bracknor and are looking for a new CEO. This could break the stalemate.

CybAero does not report quarterly. Find my latest post here.

Dignitana

The most exiting report will be the report from Dignitana. The primary focus is on the market penetration in the US. The Q2 report was a disappointment to some as is showed negative growth compared to Q1. On the other hand, there was a large single order in Q1 obscuring the picture.

DignitanaDignitana have made (almost) monthly announcements of business developments during most of 2017 and the number of systems in use is steadily rising. We will see a rise in turnover compared to Q2 – the question is the growth rate.

The share price have moved between 12 SEK and almost 16 SEK during the quarter. On Friday, it closed at 13.55 SEK. The turnover is extremely low at present with only a few, small trades reflecting the limbo we are in right now. On Friday, there were 10 trades with an average of 10.542 SEK per trade.

Report date is the popular November 23th. Find the latest post here.

Fortnox

After the Q2 report, Fortnox fell back from almost 37 SEK to a little above 33 SEK. Q2 profits were a bit weaker than expected but the rise in number of users higher. Since the end of August, the share has recovered significantly and closed at 39.8 SEK on Friday. In other words, it is up 20 % in September.

During the quarter, Fortnox have announced a number of new services. The effect of these on the Q3 report are probably limited. The main source of growth will be the high number of new users acquired during Q2.

Report date is October 24th. Find my latest post here.

Heliospectra

Heliospectra announced five orders in quick succession at the end of July and beginning of August. Since then there has been silence. In terms of reports, some of these orders will probably have an effect on turnover in Q3. In the Q2 report, it read that order intake was 31 % higher during the first half of the year compared to 2016. This, together with the announced orders Q3, will show higher turnover in Q3, I think.

My prime focus will be the level of loss. Heliospectra made a loss of 19 MSEK during H1, and with 49.5 MSEK in cash this cannot go on forever.

The share price is a roller coaster. Before the orders in July/August, the share price was as low as 3.66 SEK. Then came the orders and it went above 5 SEK by Start-August. On Friday, the share closed at 4.12 SEK.

If I were an investor on the hunt for a cheap share and a 1-2 year horizon, Heliospectra is by far the best buy among the shares in my portfolio.

Report date is October 27th. Find the latest post here.

Nexam Chemical

In Q2 Nexam had their best quarter ever. The company does not announce its orders, and it is therefore difficult to access if Q3 will be another ‘best ever’ or we will see a weaker quarter. Nexam Chemical HoldingThere is no doubt though that if Nexams customers can find a market, then reoccurring orders will form much of the turnover. I hope that a number of these will form a steady turnover-base. By then end of Q2 turnover was 37 % higher than at the same time in 2016. My guess is that by the end of Q3 this is even higher.

The share price in Q3 have had its ups and downs. By the start of Q3, the level were 9-9.5 SEK. Right now, it is 8.5-9 SEK. The range is 8.3-10.4 SEK.

Report date is November 8th. Find the latest post here.

Phase Holographic Imaging

Phase Holographic is yet another roller coaster. It entered Q3 at 56.25 SEK, went as high 67.5 SEK before it started sliding and then plunged right after the Q2 report. At the lowest, it was at Phase Holographic38.6 SEK right after the report. On Friday, it closed at 42.2 SEK.

The company does not announce orders, so it is difficult to access sales and turnover. In the Q2 report the CEO wrote that sales and marketing have stepped up and the gross margin were rising. Still the company sells at the level of half a million a quarter.

The burn rate is 4 million per quarter and with app. 15 million in the bank, this can go on for almost another year.

Phase Holographic does not follow the calendar. Q2 report on December 18th. find the latest post here.

Recyctec

Recyctec had an extra general meeting this week in order to approve the issue of a convertible loan of 5 MSEK. Even though it is a small private placement, is should be sufficient to take the company to break even.

During September, the new CEO issued a commercial update announcing renegotiation of the current agreements in order to raise profitability and to secure a steady inflow of used glycol for processing.

The share price at the beginning of Q3 was 1.64 and on was Friday 1.25 SEK. During the quarter is has been as low as 1.07 SEK. Recyctec is a very small listed company with at market cap of 30 MSEK.

Report date is October 27th. Find the latest post here.

Portfolio overview – Reports with largest impact

After this portfolio overview the conclusion is that some reports have potential for changing the share price upwards. This quarter will be Dignitana, Fortnox, Heliospectra, Nexam, and Recyctec. Possible impacts could be on BrainCool and CybAero if sales are exceptional. Most likely, it will be the reports from Dignitana and Heliospectra that will cause the largest movements if they show high growth in turnover.

Check out my growth share portfolio, the share price trigger list or my EGS (Evaluation of Growth Shares) Model.

1 thought on “Towards the end of Q3 – portfolio overview

  1. Pingback: Three reports in line with expectation – and slaughter of Dignitana | Swedish growth shares

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