Portfolio H1-18

Portfolio performance first half of 2018

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First half of 2018 have been exiting. During the first six months one share have more than doubled and one almost – and in the other end of the lane, one went bankrupt. It is the first time I experience a company going bankrupt as investor. I was not exactly surprised, as trading has been on halt for many months. Nevertheless, it is sad.

Above is the portfolio development during H1. As OMX SPI shows the Swedish index was almost flat (+0.9 %) during the period. Compared the portfolio on average went up 4.4 %.

Winners of the portfolio

The main contributor to this was Cantargia, which after a successful issue have climbed 123 % upwards during H1. In the underwood of upcoming antibody treatments Cantargia seems to have an edge and might end up the tallest tree in the forest. Institutional investors favour the share, which have pushed the upward move during H1.

Heliospectra was a car length after Cantargia with + 88 %. During the last part of 2017 and the first half of 2018, Heliospectra has announced a sting of orders. At the same time a cost-cutting program have paved the way for a better profitability. In my view, we cannot expect break even in 2018. Next year is more realistic and is not too optimistic after the costs reductions.

Fortnox is third with + 54 %. In 2017, Fortnox was the best performing share (+44 %) as well and this continues in 2018. Two years ago (in March 2016) Visma made a bid for Fortnox at 24 SEK per share. Since then the share is up 177 %. Back then, I accepted the offer – but today I am glad the deal did not go through.

Not-at-all-winners

At the other end of the lane, is the worst performing shares. Third worst is Dignitana. This used to be my largest position. Since the latest issue in December 2017, the share have never really recovered. During 2017, it was down 84 %. Seemingly, the danger of another issue hangs over the share and chains it to the 2 SEK-mark. Down 35 % this year it is.

Second worst is A1M Pharma. During 2017, the share value was halved – and H1-18 subtracts A1M Pharmaadditional 70 % from that. In other words, it will take quite some time before my investment pays off. To be just, since end of June the share have regained a bit. For some reason A1Ms substance, ROSguard, cannot attract investors despite good chances of reaching market. If A1M succeeds in bringing ROSguard to market, the current share price will probably be ridiculous. I five year time, I might kick myself for not having found at little more money to invest in A1M – or I might not if they fail. When writing this, A1M today announced a positive pre-clinical study and the share is up 35-38 %. Perhaps I should have bought at 3.3 SEK…

Then … the end for CybAero. I bought CybAero early when I started investing in Swedish growth CybAeroshares. Readers of this blog will know I have written about the company repeatedly. There certainly have been ups and downs in this relationship. At midsummer, the company filed for bankruptcy. Last week I drove past Linköping and scanned the sky to see if I could get a final glimpse of an APID One. No luck. Probably they are locked up ready for auctioning, as everything will be sold to cover the debts of the company. CybAero reminds me that this segment contains a high risk.

Other news

A Scottish company has dragged Hexatronic into a court case over a possible infringement of patents. The news hit the share price hard as it came in middle of June. Probably it will recover after the H1-report.

BrainCool have decided to hand out the subsidiary, PolarCool AB to the shareholders of BrainCool. PolarCool will probably make an IPO (12-14 MSEK) and list at the end of October. Shareholders in BrainCool will receive shares in PolarCool 1:1 – and therefor probably will ask between 0.3 and 0.4 SEK per share initially.

Recyctec were the first to report H1. Sales are up, there is a new board of directors and the company have more or less made a turn around. Unfortunately, the CEO will leave shortly. He has done a terrific job in restoring confidence in the company and the business idea. The report short: Recyctec plans for positive cash flow during Q4. H1-turnover was 5.8 MSEK (+ 256 % compared to last year) and loss were 4.6 MSEK (down 53%). If sales continues to rise as during H1 for the rest of 2018, I might kick my butt next January for not buying mores shares while I could still get them for 0.8 SEK.

Last but not least Phase Holographic have made an issue. This have put heavy pressure on the share price, but the share have regained a little the past days.

Check out my growth share portfolio, the share price trigger list or my EGS (Evaluation of Growth Shares) Model.

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