Category Archives: Portfolio performance

Shares in 2018

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Well, Trump and Brexit hit the share market hard in December. Probably it affected every corner of the global share markets. Even the Swedish were I invested my money. Looking back on 2018 a few shares performed very well – and too many performed awful. In 2018, I even experienced the first bankruptcy, as CybAero had to close and the shares lost their value. The 2018 newcomer is PolarCool, a spin-off from BrainCool, who had its debut on Spotlight market at the end of November.

2018 share pride development. (* New in November, ** Bankrupt in June)

Losers in 2018

In general the broad Stockholm index (OMXSPI) lost 7.7 % during 2018. The average loss in my portfolio was 10.4 %. Again this year (as in 2017), my portfolio performed worse than the index.

The main culprit is of course CybAero with a loss of 100 % as the share lost its value after the bankruptcy in June.

A1M Pharma also lost a significant part of its value during the year. To make things worse, A1M announced yet another preferential rights issue shortly before Christmas. During autumn, there came a new CEO and new chairperson of the board. NASDAQ has furthermore placed the share on the observation list. Since the IPO, there have been an issue each year – 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and now 2019 – weighting the share down heavily. The share lost 90 % of its value in 2018.

In terms of investor value, PolarCool did not bring much to the portfolio. On its first day the share lost approximately 50 % of the issue price of 2 SEK. This continued through December and with a closing price of 0.56 SEK on Friday, the share is down 72 %. I hope the company will be more successful in 2019 as the product can limit the damages caused by concussions in sports.

Waystream performed almost as bad. Down 69 % during the year due to low sales. The reaction during the year was harsh, and to some extent, unjust. The present market cap is 21.1 MSEK – compared to a turnover from January to September of 57.3 MSEK. Higher sales will probably lift the share significantly. Of course, I hope it will happen soon.

Winners then

Dignitana is up 79 % during 2018 despite an issue in December. If we go back two years, the price was 19.30 SEK so there still is some steps ahead before we reach the former levels. Probably Dignitana will start to generate cash in 2019.

Heliospectra is up 60 % almost recovering for the loss in 2017. During the year, the share had two peaks. One in January where it shortly went above 10 SEK and one in July where it peaked at 9.74 SEK. Lack of announced orders caused it to fall back, I think. Personally, I am a bit worried about the lack of announced orders in November and December. Right now orders seem too few.

Fortnox went up 55 % in 2018. This follows the 45 % rise in 2017. Of the shares in the portfolio, Fortnox is the most stable growing share. On several occasions during the second half of 2018, the share even has been above 80 SEK, with a top at 84.50 SEK in late august. I tend to think that a price SEK 80+ is fine, but the P/E at that share price is too high. I am sure we will see these SEK 80+ levels again during 2019 as Fortnox both extends the number of costumers and their individual spending. In Q3, the turnover growth was 38 % with an operating margin of 34 %.

It is difficult to make predictions – especially about the future

There are a number of companies where a crucial element in 2019 will be the growth in sales. In mature companies this along with the ability to earn profits are of course the main driver for the share price.

For many of the companies in my portfolio selling products and earning profits are the next step. Some still do not have products to sell. Cantargia and A1M Pharma are the best examples with years ahead before their products will reach consumers.

A number of companies have some sales, but they are still struggling to reach breakeven. This goes for AroCell, BrainCool, Dignitana, Heliospectra, Nexam Chemical, Recyctec, Phase Holographic, and PolarCool. Of these, I think Nexam, Dignitana and perhaps Recyctec are the most likely candidates to reach a positive cash flow and perhaps even breakeven in 2019.

Waystream balances on breakeven and if they manages to return to positive cash flow and earn profits, I guess we will see the share go up again.

Fortnox and Hexatronic both earn profits and grow. Their share prices have developed quote opposite, though. Where Fortnox have grown organically, Hexatronic have grown through acquisitions during 2018. I expect both companies to grow significantly during 2019. I hope that Hexatronic will resume its organic growth along the acquisition-based growth.

Then there is Trump and Brexit. Both injects uncertainty into the market – which always will make shares fall. A hard Brexit will directly affect a number of companies in my portfolio. Hexatronic have identified UK as a priority market and a number of BrainCools studies have been conducted in the UK. Nexam have production facilities in Scotland. With a weaker UK economy, they will have trouble on the UK market, and trouble moving products from UK to the rest of Europe. In truth this might be more important than individual company specific drivers.

Check out my growth share portfolio, the share price trigger list or my EGS (Evaluation of Growth Shares) Model.

Portfolio H1-18

Portfolio performance first half of 2018

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First half of 2018 have been exiting. During the first six months one share have more than doubled and one almost – and in the other end of the lane, one went bankrupt. It is the first time I experience a company going bankrupt as investor. I was not exactly surprised, as trading has been on halt for many months. Nevertheless, it is sad.

Above is the portfolio development during H1. As OMX SPI shows the Swedish index was almost flat (+0.9 %) during the period. Compared the portfolio on average went up 4.4 %. Continue reading

Portfolio in 2017

Portfolio development in 2017

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We are now some hours past New Year’s evening and it is time to look at the development of the portfolio in 2017. The year have been somewhat mixed. In general, though, I still wait for the potential rocket-shares to lift off. The overall picture you can see at the top of this post.

I will say a few words on both red and green shares… And I will start with the red, the three shares who have lost the most in 2017. Continue reading

Up and down – portfolio volatility

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The theme today is volatility. The reason is a discussion I had. The other day, I discussed shares with a friend and we compared list on our phones. On mine, BrainCool was up 4-5 %, AroCell down 6 % etc. Then he showed his list with large cap shares and the changes were 0.57 % and occasional 1.42 %. A change of 3 % is to him extraordinary while in my portfolio 3 % might be the difference from one trade to the next. Just reflecting the spread. Continue reading

Portfolio development first half 2017

Portfolio performance first half of 2017

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Well, the first half of 2017 did not make me a rich man. The portfolio performance is disappointing.  Actually, on average the portfolio is down 28.8 % since New Year. This in a period were the broad Stockholm index (SPI) is up almost 8 %. Luckily, there are stars among the shares with great performance. Still the number of shares with huge losses are very high.

It is increasingly difficult for a share to get any upwards momentum after an issue. Often the share hovers around the issue price. Then starts sliding downwards. BrainCool is the latest example. The issue price were 5 SEK and now a month later, the share is almost 10 % below the issue price at 4.59 SEK. For the winner in the first half of 2017, Phase Holographic, it took 14 months before the share started moving upwards after an issue. The overall portfolio performance you can see above. Here follows comments on the three best and the three worst performing shares. Continue reading

Portfolio performance 2016

Portfolio performance during 2016

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Last year did not have the same swung as the portfolio performance of 2015. On average, the portfolio lost 28 % – compared to a plus of 80 % in 2015. There are probably two reasons for this. One is the more moderate growth in share prices during 2016. The broad Stockholm index rose 6 %. The other reason is the very high number of issues among the shares in the portfolio. In general, issues put pressure on the price. Unless some very significant news follow shortly, it takes a long time for the price to recover. Continue reading

Portfolio performance Q3

Portfolio performance Q3

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This quarter is the first quarter of 2016 where the average price of the portfolio has gone up. Not much, only 3,4 % compared to a overall portfolio performance of -23.1 % in 2016. The best performing share is Fortnox, fast recovering after the failed take-over bid from Norwegian-based Visma. Fortnox is up 46 % in Q3. The worst performing share is by far CybAero. Q3 more than halved the price of the share. CybAero is down 52 %. The reason is the issue announced mid-September. Continue reading

Portfolio performance – first half 2016

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Well, the portfolio performance the past six months have been depressing and the overall performance is rather poor. On the other hand, it seems that at least for a few of the companies early summer has been a turning point.

In overall, the average share price in the portfolio is down 23 % during the first six months of 2016. In Q2, the average is minus 14.7 %. In comparison, the SPI-index (all Nasdaq-shares in Sweden) is down 4.3 % in 2016 and down 1.3 % in Q2. Compared to the performance of the portfolio in 2015, where the full-year result was +78.6%, 2016 seem dull and depressing. Check the December update for details. Continue reading