About

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For a number of years, I have followed and been active on the Swedish growth share market – even though I am Danish. My special interest are the rich number of startup companies getting private funding by listing themselves at either Nasdaq Stockholm or some of the other Swedish share markets. Swedish growth shares has become my hobby.

The difference in share culture between Denmark and Sweden is striking. In Sweden, small companies can find funds among private investors, while in Denmark an IPO (Initial Public Offer) will be something that goes into the media.

Discussions on shares are lively in Sweden. I have followed a number of these forums in several years and find it enlightening – and sometimes even funny – to read the postings on the different companies. In some threads it is more a (football-) fan culture full of love and passion that of a rational investor behaviour that is dominant.

I am not a professional investor. I work as a manager and among my educations are a MBA, so I know a little of running of companies. This blog is my hobby. My friend finds me nerdy and my kids asks, “Why do you always read something in Swedish?”

The aim of this blog is not to persuade you, dear reader, to invest in the same companies I do. Shares in start-up companies are risky, but there fine investments to be done among startup companies in Sweden. Anyhow, I hope you will leave a comment and perhaps even a name of company that could be a future investment.

Anders Lykke Nielsen

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Read more about my growth shares and how I evaluate growth shares (my EGS-model)

15 thoughts on “About

  1. Kenneth

    Hej Anders

    Jeg har investeret i SensoDetect, som nu laver en emission til 2 DDK. Hvad er dine tanker her, skal man handle eller?

    Håber du har tid til at svare 🙂

    MVh
    Kenneth

    Reply
    1. Anders Lykke Nielsen Post author

      Hey Kenneth
      Thanks for your comment!
      I have only heard of SensoDetect before you wrote, and I have only spend an hour reading the memorandum, so my conclusions are based on the quick reading:
      1: I notice that the company every second year since the IPO in 2009 have issued more shares: 2011, 2013 and now in 2015. And that the price have continuously dropped, dropped and dropped. Not the best sign, I think.
      2: This issue, it’s said, will speed up sales. That’s sounds fairly ok: the product is at hand, they have scientific documentation, they have reference costumers.
      3: The market is clearly present: the number of people with ADHD etc. is exploding, and the pressure on health systems for faster (and cheaper) diagnosis are rising. By fulfilling those needs, SensoDetect have clearly hit a market. And one without competitors, apparently.
      4: The business model looks ok, too. Sales of hardware and selling each analysis afterwards, looks reasonable. They keep their critical know-how in-house and create costumer loyalty through the investment in hardware.
      5: Pls notice the warrants (p 26 in the memorandum). Most of the management-team have actually bought warrants at 1.3 SEK which gives the right to buy shares at 15.36 SEK in summer 2017. If they are to profit from their warrants, the share price must exceed 16.86 SEK (1.3+15.36) in two years – this is 8 times the issuing price. I they succeed, all investors will be pleased!
      6: Finally, the burn-rate the last two years is app. 7 MSEK. At present there are 3.5 MSEK in cash and 8 MSEK from the issue (9.7 MSEK minus costs). With 11.5 MSEK there will be cash for 1½ year. The plan is to reach break-even in 2016, so probably there will be no need for further issues. Another good sign!

      In all, I find, this issue could be a good entry point – on the other hand there is not much discount. Right now sales at Aktietorget are at 2.3 and buy is 2.07 SEK.
      What makes me cautious though, is the share price development – a year ago it was between 6 and 7 and in 2012 is was 25!

      Do you have warrants, Kenneth, or do you hope that the present shareowners will not buy and leave some for you? If the latter: be prepared for a disappointment – those who do not want to buy new shares often sell out before the issue puts pressure on the price – and the buyers are often those who plan to buy in the issue.
      It’s a risky investment as always in this type of company, but if you can afford to loose the money: go for it! The award you get from taking the risk can be substantial!
      And if you do not get any shares a possible – and often cheap – entry-point is when the BTAs are issued. Often they are priced lower that the actual shares. Check if you can trade them in your web-bank. Unfortunally I cannot 🙁
      Anders

      Reply
  2. Francois

    Hi Anders

    I am a private investor focusing on listed technology small caps, with a keen interest in scandinavian companies. Your blog is really useful and interesting. I was just wondering if you can recommend any other source of information in english concerning scandinavian stocks. Many thanks and best regards

    Francois

    Reply
    1. Anders Lykke Nielsen Post author

      Hi Francois.
      Thanks for writing. I am very pleased to help you. I have never searched systematically for sources in English on Scandinavian shares, but I have from time to time noticed one or two. And these I gladly share!
      I know next to nothing on the Norwegian and the Finnish market. I know of no sites on Danish shares either, but perhaps Google is smarter than I am, so try your luck.
      You probably already know that you find a lot of material on the Nasdaq webpage, on Aktietorget, and Nordic Growth Market. These are my primary sources for information on share price developments etc. They have also ok general company presentations.

      In general, Scandinavian companies are often export minded, since our home markets are small. Consequently, you can find both reports and press releases in English versions as well on their webpages.
      The tricky part, if I judge from my own experience, is to find evaluations, analysis, and thoughts on different investment possibilities. Personally, with my interest in Swedish growth shares, I scan the market by reading Swedish newspapers, follow discussion forums, blogs, and recordings from investor meetings (often on YouTube) – but all in Swedish.

      I know only of a few in English. Try them and perhaps they will guide you to the next site:
      Redeye – They publish some of their analyses in English and some in Swedish. I know also of Alpharesearcher and NordicInvestor.net.

      Three links I find a little, so: Dear readers: If you know of good sites, feel free to share with Francois and me!
      Anders

      Reply
  3. Kenneth

    Hej Anders, jeg følger selv meget med i mindre svenske aktier. Har i øjeblikket mine midler placeret i 4 selskaber som dog ikke er på din liste: double Bond pharmeceuticals, Idogen, Raybased og Ifox. Idogen har jeg TO i, som jeg håber at kunne fyre af inden for en måned med god fortjeneste. Ifox inden for to måneder, Raybased vil jeg beholde over en længere periode og det samme med double Bond. Når jeg har solgt Idogen og Ifox vil jeg bruge en del af midlerne på Optifreeze, som jeg tror eksploderer inden for et år. Nu må vi se, men tænkte at det kunne være interessant at diskutere aktierne i dette forum. Hvis Kenneth

    Reply
    1. Anders Lykke Nielsen Post author

      Hej Kenneth, tak for din kommentar! Jeg har selv Idogen på min shortlist og kursudviklingen hen over sommeren har været rigtig fin. Raybased kender jeg ikke. Ifox og Doubme Bond har været rigtig gode hvis du har købt dem på det rigtige tidspunkt.
      Fremtiden? Tja, Optifreeze har klaret sig godt det sidste år fra 15 til 40. Min erfaring er imidlertid at de helt store spring ligger fra under 5 kr. Det er oftest derfra de store procentvise stigninger sker. Uheldigvis er det osse der rigtigt meget af risikoen bor. 🙂
      Hvad er din strategi? Du virker til at handle mere end jeg.
      Venlig hilsen
      Anders

      Reply
  4. Michael

    Hi Anders
    It seems like Nexam has difficulties getting orders – now this year they have succeeded with an order for a bigger customer but it seems like there is a great time distance between the orders.
    Now is that because it is a niche product or are there other reasons – they hired a VD to raise sales, but it seems not to be easy?
    Do you know if they penetrate the market how big the market is for them (in cash) and if they have a goal on market share (cash)?
    What is your opinion on the share right now?

    Reply
    1. Anders Lykke Nielsen Post author

      Hi Michael
      Yes, you are right. Market penetration has been slow – and slower than I expected when we entered 2016. On the other hand, the business seems much more professional after Anders Spetz became CEO.

      I’m not sure of the size of the market. Nexam makes additives for different plastics. The market for these plastics are enormous, but the additives are probably not suited for all the 320 million tonnes of plastic produced every year worldwide (2015). To be honest I have no idea of the potential market for Nexam products – mainly because plastic today are replacing other materials (metals etc.) and each time Nexam or others can design a new plastic and it do something like endure heat, it can replace metal in car or flight motors – and the total market grows. They make their own market.

      The company does not make any guidance as to turnover, market share etc. at this stage. Therefore, your guess are as good as mine are.

      They have three focus areas: Polyester foams, pipes of polyethylene and high performance plastic. For the first two of them, they have one reference costumer in each segment. In the high performance area, they have 3. Therefore, a deep market penetration is still ahead of us.

      I guess one of the reasons for the slow market penetration is that Nexam never sells anything to end-users. The have to rely on others to sell their product – and thereby creating turnover in Nexam. And in the foam an pipes segments there can be quite long lead times. One thing is conservative businesses the other need for documentation of long-term durability or health issues concerning fresh water pipes – I can see many scenarios that can delay market penetration.

      There is a joker in the company, and it is their huge money tank. A year ago, the company made a private placement of 129 MSEK. Most likely the money are for an acquisition, perhaps a production facility of a company that can bring additional turnover to boost the organic growth.

      My view on the share: I am positive about the share – otherwise I had sold it. Nexam is about 10% of my portfolio. The share price have not moved since 2015. Look at this; end 2015: 12.5 SEK, end 2016: 12.25 SEK, today: 12.65 SEK. On the other hand, in this unmoving price there was the huge private placement one year ago.

      My guess is that the main driver for Nexam during the next year or two will be rising turnover. In the beginning of May we will have a report, and if that shows rising sales the share price will move along. Probably it will resemble larger companies, more than immature companies where share price is much more volatile. One or two huge orders will of course effect the share price, but it will be turnover that determines the share price. Unless of course the company acquires another company and thereby completely changes the setup.

      If you buy this share you will need a long-term perspective. On the positive side is that the company is past product development, has their first reference costumers etc. The company is past a lot of the uncertainties. But, but, but if you are looking for a rocket, put money in IT og med-tech. Not in chemical industry:-)

      Reply
      1. Michael

        Hi Anders
        Thanks for your complete answer and thanks for taking the time to answer.

        Though before investing in the Company it would have been nice to know if we are talking about a 10 – 100 million or 1 billion sek. Company – the Growth potential. I can see that they are still a cash burning Company (Year end report 2016). I like the product and the idea behind – so maybe as a start I’ll place a smaller position in the share and follow it for a year or two …

        Let me also thank you for you to share your analyzes with us – it’s interesting reading.

        Reply
  5. Anders Lykke Nielsen Post author

    Thanks Michael – Yes, the company is still burning cash and will probably do for some time. I my self try to cover my risks (in these high-risk investments) by making a portfolio with different drivers and different industries. Good luck with your investments:-)

    Reply
  6. Michael kjaer

    Hello Anders

    I follow this blog with high interest.

    I was wondering if you are going to invest in Omnicar (Going public tomorrow). I think they are valued at a very attractive price, and they already got decent amount of revenue in 2016. They expect in 2017 to grow their revenue with more than 100 %. I think they are being very optimistic regarding their 2018 forecast. They expect a net result of 11 mill sek in 2018. They will be valued around 66 mill sek, so that is P/E around 6. I think it is unlikey that they will have a net result of 11 mill sek, but even 4 or 5 mill will be very impressive for such a young company at that valuation. Their addresseable market in short term is scandinavia and that is around 450 mill sek. I know next to nothing about the auto industry, but looking at their revenues it seems like they got a product that is very much needed.

    What is your take on omnicar?

    Reply
    1. Anders Lykke Nielsen Post author

      Hi Michael
      Sorry there is not much I can say about OmniCar. There was a presentation from OmniCar at Sedermera Dagen in Copenhagen in March. My conclusion after the presentations was that the only company I thought I might consider was Finnish Enersize. OmniCar did not catch my attention then. When their material became available on Aktietorget, I briefly read it, mostly out of curiosity. I never had any intention of investing.

      I am as blank on the industry as you are, but in my heart, I know I would never myself buy a service contract for my car. The product they bring to market does not appeal to me personally, that is. To be honest this is where they lost my attention.

      My experience about projected turnover and profit in start-ups are that they are at best a guess. Four out of five are behind schedule after some months, anyway. Market penetration always takes more time and needs more money than it seems at the time of the IPO. Some years ago I made spreadsheet after spreadsheet based on the expected turnover, profits etc. of the companies I thought I might put some money in. It was a complete waste of time. One positive thing I noticed about OmniCar, though, is that they have a customer base, they have proven their product on the market, and they are making money.

      I noticed too, that the debut on Aktietorget was fine for OmniCar. The IPO price was 5.40 SEK and Friday it closed at 7 SEK – almost 30 % up in 2 days. If you went along you have made some money. Congratulations!

      I have not checked the trading pattern, but it might be worth considering selling now with the intention to rebuy in a week or two. The share fell on Friday so perhaps some of the investors are pulling out their money, happy to have made 30 % in a very short time. If this is the case, the share will go down. By selling and re-buying, you could enlarge your number of shares or pull out a profit. Check the volumes and the number of trades. Strange things happen in the summertime and a very few trades can cause huge changes in the share price on Aktietorget.

      Reply
  7. Michael kjaer

    Regarding the trading pattern, i noticed that there were huge blocks of sellers, and not that many buyers, so i was affraid that the stock would go significantly down, but the share “only” dropped 2 %. I hope that many of the ppl who are happy with their 30 %, are gone now 🙂

    it is kinda hard to predict where the share is going to be, because I think many ppl can see the potentiale, and they like the fact that they already make money, and like you said, have a customer base, that enjoy their product.

    One thing i especially like about OmniCar is that, like Fortnox (I think), most of their income come from monthly subscription, so it will be “easy” to see if they are on the right track.

    The only downside I see with OmniCar, is that this product is an “industry insider product,” so an outsider like me, have a hard time evaluation the demand, quality and of the product.

    Reply
  8. Eugène Ethan de Grey

    Hi Anders
    I live in Australia and have a share portfolio consisting of US, UK and Euro shares. I have liquidated 50% of my portfolio since Nov 2017 and am thinking of diversifying from US shares in a big way. I am really scared of the every growing and unsustainable debt of most countries. In Australia the household debt relative to income is currently 200% – the highest in the world – and our government is in the process of following Trump’s example of reducing corporate tax – which will fuel our country’s debt to even higher levels. It’s a freight train that should derail. There are going to many casualities when interest rates thick up. Leaving cash earning no interest is not the brightest idea in town, hence my interest in Scandinavian countries not linked directly to either the US or Europe. Am I potential reducing risk investing outside of the traditional countries like the US and Europe, or am I living in a dreamworld? Appreciate your opinion/comments.

    Reply
    1. Anders Lykke Nielsen Post author

      Hi Eugène
      No, you are not in a dream world. But you have to know that the Scandinavian countries are closely linked to EU. – We still have our own currencies, but Denmark has fixed our currency closely to the EURO. Sweden (member of EU) still has some float, as do Norway (outside EU). In terms of public debts we have rules in EU on the size of debts. The Greek crisis 1½ years back was about this – and right now Italy are above the limit and causing concern.

      If you are reducing risk by investing outside the normal European markets by investing in Scandinavia, I don’t know. We are small and open economies so if Trumps project (if he has one, that is) collapses we’ll be hit with full force. Sweden did better than Denmark in 2008, but we all felt the crisis. But huge tax-cuts as seen in the US (and by you) are not on the agenda as an fiscal instrument. If we reduce taxes, in general we will find the money – cutting public spending or taxing elsewhere. To be honest I do not understand why the US government is pouring more money into the economy at a time with stable growth. The economy is very likely to overheat…

      I hope you find this useful! Have you any specific companies in sight?

      Best
      Anders

      Reply

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