Tag Archives: Cybaero

Shares in 2018

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Well, Trump and Brexit hit the share market hard in December. Probably it affected every corner of the global share markets. Even the Swedish were I invested my money. Looking back on 2018 a few shares performed very well – and too many performed awful. In 2018, I even experienced the first bankruptcy, as CybAero had to close and the shares lost their value. The 2018 newcomer is PolarCool, a spin-off from BrainCool, who had its debut on Spotlight market at the end of November.

2018 share pride development. (* New in November, ** Bankrupt in June)

Losers in 2018

In general the broad Stockholm index (OMXSPI) lost 7.7 % during 2018. The average loss in my portfolio was 10.4 %. Again this year (as in 2017), my portfolio performed worse than the index.

The main culprit is of course CybAero with a loss of 100 % as the share lost its value after the bankruptcy in June.

A1M Pharma also lost a significant part of its value during the year. To make things worse, A1M announced yet another preferential rights issue shortly before Christmas. During autumn, there came a new CEO and new chairperson of the board. NASDAQ has furthermore placed the share on the observation list. Since the IPO, there have been an issue each year – 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and now 2019 – weighting the share down heavily. The share lost 90 % of its value in 2018.

In terms of investor value, PolarCool did not bring much to the portfolio. On its first day the share lost approximately 50 % of the issue price of 2 SEK. This continued through December and with a closing price of 0.56 SEK on Friday, the share is down 72 %. I hope the company will be more successful in 2019 as the product can limit the damages caused by concussions in sports.

Waystream performed almost as bad. Down 69 % during the year due to low sales. The reaction during the year was harsh, and to some extent, unjust. The present market cap is 21.1 MSEK – compared to a turnover from January to September of 57.3 MSEK. Higher sales will probably lift the share significantly. Of course, I hope it will happen soon.

Winners then

Dignitana is up 79 % during 2018 despite an issue in December. If we go back two years, the price was 19.30 SEK so there still is some steps ahead before we reach the former levels. Probably Dignitana will start to generate cash in 2019.

Heliospectra is up 60 % almost recovering for the loss in 2017. During the year, the share had two peaks. One in January where it shortly went above 10 SEK and one in July where it peaked at 9.74 SEK. Lack of announced orders caused it to fall back, I think. Personally, I am a bit worried about the lack of announced orders in November and December. Right now orders seem too few.

Fortnox went up 55 % in 2018. This follows the 45 % rise in 2017. Of the shares in the portfolio, Fortnox is the most stable growing share. On several occasions during the second half of 2018, the share even has been above 80 SEK, with a top at 84.50 SEK in late august. I tend to think that a price SEK 80+ is fine, but the P/E at that share price is too high. I am sure we will see these SEK 80+ levels again during 2019 as Fortnox both extends the number of costumers and their individual spending. In Q3, the turnover growth was 38 % with an operating margin of 34 %.

It is difficult to make predictions – especially about the future

There are a number of companies where a crucial element in 2019 will be the growth in sales. In mature companies this along with the ability to earn profits are of course the main driver for the share price.

For many of the companies in my portfolio selling products and earning profits are the next step. Some still do not have products to sell. Cantargia and A1M Pharma are the best examples with years ahead before their products will reach consumers.

A number of companies have some sales, but they are still struggling to reach breakeven. This goes for AroCell, BrainCool, Dignitana, Heliospectra, Nexam Chemical, Recyctec, Phase Holographic, and PolarCool. Of these, I think Nexam, Dignitana and perhaps Recyctec are the most likely candidates to reach a positive cash flow and perhaps even breakeven in 2019.

Waystream balances on breakeven and if they manages to return to positive cash flow and earn profits, I guess we will see the share go up again.

Fortnox and Hexatronic both earn profits and grow. Their share prices have developed quote opposite, though. Where Fortnox have grown organically, Hexatronic have grown through acquisitions during 2018. I expect both companies to grow significantly during 2019. I hope that Hexatronic will resume its organic growth along the acquisition-based growth.

Then there is Trump and Brexit. Both injects uncertainty into the market – which always will make shares fall. A hard Brexit will directly affect a number of companies in my portfolio. Hexatronic have identified UK as a priority market and a number of BrainCools studies have been conducted in the UK. Nexam have production facilities in Scotland. With a weaker UK economy, they will have trouble on the UK market, and trouble moving products from UK to the rest of Europe. In truth this might be more important than individual company specific drivers.

Check out my growth share portfolio, the share price trigger list or my EGS (Evaluation of Growth Shares) Model.

Portfolio H1-18

Portfolio performance first half of 2018

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First half of 2018 have been exiting. During the first six months one share have more than doubled and one almost – and in the other end of the lane, one went bankrupt. It is the first time I experience a company going bankrupt as investor. I was not exactly surprised, as trading has been on halt for many months. Nevertheless, it is sad.

Above is the portfolio development during H1. As OMX SPI shows the Swedish index was almost flat (+0.9 %) during the period. Compared the portfolio on average went up 4.4 %. Continue reading

CybAero in the clear?

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Shortly before Easter CybAero announced a financing agreement with a London-based company, Alpha Blue Ocean. This agreement gives CybAero access to (up to) 52.5 MSEK in 13 convertible loans. The day after, March 29th finally came the postponed year-end report, showing a loss of 155 MSEK after tax. I still wonder if this Easter 2018 was an (crash-) landing site for CybAero – or a take-off point. Continue reading

CybAero: Skeletons falling out

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CybAero made headlines. A week ago, March 19th, the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, SvD had a front-page story about CybAero. The angel was that the company covered shortcomings in a naval test of its drones. Instead, CybAero issued a press release telling that the test was a success – and the share went up 14 %. This happened in May 2016. Continue reading

Ups and downs

Time for the yearend report – Ups and downs in February

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The past two weeks have had its ups and downs. These weeks are really the high season for companies announcing their yearend report, but also other news have had their impact. From an investors perspective some has been good and some has been bad – but among the bad, hides a one that is really bad, almost catastrophic. I will come back to that later. Continue reading

year-end reports

Year-end reports approaching

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During the next four weeks, there will be a stream of year-end reports. Large companies probably with many resources have already made their reports public. Small companies as the ones in my portfolio often comes later. All of them except CybAero (March) and Phase Holographic (does not follow calendar) will report during February starting with Fortnox on Friday the 9th and ending with Cantargia on the 28th. Let us start with the reports containing least surprises. Continue reading

Portfolio update: What a beginning of 2018!

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Two weeks back I made a post on the portfolio development last year. The conclusion was that only three shares out of 13 moved up last year. The three worst performing shares all dropped 80-90 %. Now it seems that they many of the shares have started a comeback. This year in other words, have had a terrific start. Continue reading

Portfolio in 2017

Portfolio development in 2017

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We are now some hours past New Year’s evening and it is time to look at the development of the portfolio in 2017. The year have been somewhat mixed. In general, though, I still wait for the potential rocket-shares to lift off. The overall picture you can see at the top of this post.

I will say a few words on both red and green shares… And I will start with the red, the three shares who have lost the most in 2017. Continue reading

News on issues and a Merry Christmas

News on issues and a Merry Christmas

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It is Christmas at last and despite stormy weather and lack of snow, I appreciate the days of with my family. I hope you find time for that as well.

During December, four of the companies in my portfolio asked for more money. The companies are CybAero, Cantargia, Recyctec and Dignitana. In this post, I will follow up on the issues and say a few words on the perspectives. Continue reading

Issues are back after a pause

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Last year almost all companies in the portfolio asked for more money and made issues. On this front, this year has been quiet – until now. The last two months, though, CybAero, Dignitana, Cantargia and Recyctec have announced private and preferential right issues – and there is a warrant series due as well, which I got as part of A1M Pharma’s issue in June 2016. In other words, I could easily switch Christmas presents for shares – but I am not sure that my sons will be happy. Continue reading